BLOOMBERG.COM
With one day to go until Election Day in the U.S., investors seem less certain of the outcome than prediction-market gamblers and polling aggregators. Options bets on where the S&P 500 Index will be the day after the election suggest Hillary Clinton has a 63 percent chance of becoming president, Janus Capital Group Inc. said in an e-mail on Saturday. Most polling-aggregation forecasts put her odds of beating Donald Trump at more than 80 percent, with FiveThirtyEight an outlier at 65 percent. On websites that take wagers on the winner, Clinton’s lowest odds are in the Iowa Electronic Markets, where they climbed this weekend to over 70 percent, thanks in part to Sunday’s news that the Federal Bureau of Investigation won’t revisit its July decision against seeking criminal charges related to her e-mail practices...Read more>
With one day to go until Election Day in the U.S., investors seem less certain of the outcome than prediction-market gamblers and polling aggregators. Options bets on where the S&P 500 Index will be the day after the election suggest Hillary Clinton has a 63 percent chance of becoming president, Janus Capital Group Inc. said in an e-mail on Saturday. Most polling-aggregation forecasts put her odds of beating Donald Trump at more than 80 percent, with FiveThirtyEight an outlier at 65 percent. On websites that take wagers on the winner, Clinton’s lowest odds are in the Iowa Electronic Markets, where they climbed this weekend to over 70 percent, thanks in part to Sunday’s news that the Federal Bureau of Investigation won’t revisit its July decision against seeking criminal charges related to her e-mail practices...Read more>